Since the beginning of the year, the electronics industry has been the most eye-catching LED and smart home. The growth rate of consumer electronics has slowed down and innovation has been weak. The big cycle of LED, smart home, automotive electronics and chip localization has just started. At this point in time, it is necessary to reorganize and think about the framework logic of 2014 electronic investment. The field of scientific and technological innovation is the lifeblood of electronic investment. At present, we believe that LED, smart home, automotive electronics, etc. are all areas of "hardware innovation + soft and hard combination", which is worthy of attention and research.
Looking at the electronic market in the past few years, we believe that the logic lies in technological innovation, boosting hardware upgrades, and thus driving explosive growth in user demand. In the past three years, smart phones have been the most intensive terminals for technological innovation. Under the impetus of Apple, touch screens, lithium batteries, electroacoustics and other parts companies have ushered in a golden period of investment. Standing at the current time, the innovation of mobile phones and tablet PCs is weak, the user penetration rate is close to saturation, and the competition is fierce. Investors should spend more energy to find the tipping point of the next demand, which is the most electronic industry in the next two or three years. Important opportunity.
From the perspective of downstream demand, the demand for electronic products is generally not high. Take the main consumer electronics such as mobile phones, PCs, and LCD TVs as examples. The growth rate is in single digits. The current boom in the electronics industry will rely more on innovation, especially the promotion of new technologies, new products and new applications. This will determine the differentiation of the electronics industry in this round of market, with a focus on structural opportunities.
From a global perspective, the LED industry continued to triumph in 2014, with a high degree of prosperity. Whether it is the international first-line lighting giants such as Philips and Osram, or the LED industry chain companies in South Korea and Taiwan, they are optimistic about the LED lighting market and continue to increase investment. LED market prosperity depends mainly on three aspects, firstly the stabilization of the backlight market, followed by the large-scale start-up of public and commercial lighting, followed by the rapid increase in penetration of home lighting, and these three conditions are now Already available. We believe that this round of LED industry boom will continue throughout the year, and even continue into the next two or three years of LED home lighting penetration rate.
Since the beginning of the year, the stock prices of LED industry chain companies have increased significantly in the world, while A-share related companies have lagged behind. We believe that the market underestimates the upward elasticity of the LED industry after the outbreak of home lighting, and the short-term correction will usher in the golden timing of industrial layout. We are optimistic about leading companies in Sanan Optoelectronics, Sunlight Lighting, Foshan Lighting, Jufei Optoelectronics and other industries.
In addition, we believe that the “smart home†industry chain deserves investor attention. The hardware innovation under the Internet thinking accelerated worldwide, and smart home took the lead. We believe that software open source and crowdfunding are hot today, the threshold for innovation in smart hardware products is lower, and the popularity of smart terminals and the leap forward in social entertainment have fostered the soil for consumers to apply smart items. “Sharing†will drive new demand dynamics. The post-service market formed by collecting user usage data will be very large. We believe that 2014 will be the first year of the explosion of smart homes. The relevant theme markets are still not fully explored. It is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities of Ertai and Neusoft.
Automotive electronics is also expected to be the tipping point for future electronics industry demand. The long-term growth of automotive electronics is clear. In 2012, China's automotive electronics market reached 267.2 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year. CCID expects to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2015. The intelligent wave of smartphones has benefited the automotive market, and the interaction between people and vehicles has become more and more human. Automobiles have become an important entry point for business data. We believe that smart cars may develop along the path of car entertainment, assisted driving, human-car interaction, intelligent transportation, car networking, and autonomous driving. Technology giants such as Google, Apple, and Microsoft are involved in the automotive industry. This year may be the first year of a smart car for a technology company. China's electronics industry is developing rapidly. The rapid development of multinational companies' localized R&D and consumer electronics has provided abundant and excellent human resources for local auto electronics suppliers. The technology diffusion theory is also applicable to the automotive electronics field.
The demand for automotive electronics is strict, the supply chain is stable, and domestically-funded enterprises with high growth in the market are welcoming opportunities. The service life of automotive electronic components must be guaranteed for more than 30 years, and the application environment is harsh, so the requirements are very high, such as wide temperature adaptation range and strong impact resistance; therefore, product certification is difficult and time-consuming. It will not be easily replaced and will be much more stable than the consumer electronics supply chain. At present, the global automotive electronics supply chain is mainly controlled by European and American manufacturers. The overall size of Chinese-funded enterprises is small, and private enterprises are concentrated in the after-loading market, and competition is fierce. Driven by intelligent and new energy, automotive electronics is expected to usher in a new growth period. In 2012, the cost of complete vehicles will account for 25%, and by 2020, it will reach 50%. Domestic-funded enterprises are expected to usher in opportunities in high-growth markets, such as thresholds. Relatively low in the field of car and body electronics.
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