Trump’s US presidential term has entered its second year. Whether he will be a successful US president can not be asserted now; but it is certain that he is definitely the most controversial president in American history.
In the first year of the presidency, with the support of the Supreme Court and the Republican Party’s superior seats in both houses of Congress, Trump ignored the domestic and international attacks and successfully implemented a travel ban mainly for Islamic countries and withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. And the tax cut reform, fulfilled some of his own campaign promises.
The first use of Article 201 in 16 years
At the beginning of the second year of the presidency, Trump began to push forward another important campaign promise: high tariffs on imported goods to protect American businesses and encourage US manufacturing. Just last week, Trump officially launched Article 201 on Trade Protection, announcing a tariff of up to 50% on imported washing machines and a tariff of up to 30% on imported solar panels. Washing machines and solar panels have become victims of Trump's trade protection policy.
What is Trade Protection Article 201? In 1974, Section 201 of the US Trade Law stipulates that the US International Trade Commission (ITC) can investigate imported goods and determine whether it poses serious damage or damage to US industrial interests, and then recommends that the President take Measures to impose temporary punitive tariffs on imported goods. And the 301 clause we are familiar with is a punishment for a specific country. Although the United States has repeatedly used Section 301 for Chinese imports, the last time it used Article 201 to protect the entire industry, it also dates back to President George W. Bush in 2002.
Specific to the washing machine tariff war, the former reason is that the US washing machine manufacturer Whirlpool filed a complaint with ITC in the first half of last year, requesting an investigation into imported products. Although the preliminary investigation was completed by ITC, the final decision was in the hands of the president. Since 2012, ITC has confirmed that there are dumping actions by Samsung and LG three times in Whirlpool's complaint, but they have not finally adopted punitive tariffs.
It is worth mentioning that President Obama of the former Democratic Party. There is an interesting phenomenon in American politics. No matter which party candidate, the failure of the foreign trade measures that always attacked the current president during the campaign period led to the sluggish domestic manufacturing industry, and promised to take strong measures to protect the domestic industry and expand employment. But after they come to power, they will still be slammed by the next candidate for the election. Bush is like this, Obama is like this, and Trump is the same.
In order to attack the Republican government’s trade policy failure, Obama once criticized the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA, the trade agreement that Trump repeatedly threatened to withdraw) during the 2008 presidential campaign, and even threatened to be overseas. Investing US companies take punitive measures. In order to compete for the swing state vote, Obama and the Democratic Party have even vowed to use the exit clause to protect the traditional manufacturing industry in the Midwest. It sounds similar to Trump.
Many people questioned and worried about whether Obama would oppose free trade at the time, but they all thought about it. Although Obama used 301 clauses to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese tires, photovoltaics and other products during his tenure, his eight-year presidential term is based on free trade. He not only recognizes and supports the North American Free Trade Agreement, but also promotes pan-country. The Pacific Free Trade Agreement (TPP) has never used clause 201.
In fact, it is not important that Obama is a free trader. Even if he from Illinois wants to protect the already deteriorating manufacturing industry in the Midwest, his Democratic Party and the electorate's voter and representative consortium will not allow him to turn to trade protection. Under the three-dimensional system of three powers, the US president is not a dictator who is bent on his own. Obama is not, Trump is not.
The biggest beneficiary of promoting free trade is clearly the deep blue state on the east and west coasts of the United States. Here is the Democratic Party's iron ticket warehouse, which is home to many multinational corporations with great overseas business, especially in the financial services, high-tech and entertainment industries. During Obama's administration, he maintained a good and close relationship with Silicon Valley. During the 2016 presidential election, these multinational technology giants also stood in the camp of Hillary almost in unison.
The Republican Party's loyal voters base is mostly in the central and southern parts of the United States, representing the interests of traditional industries such as manufacturing, energy, steel, transportation, military, and agriculture. When Trump was running for the presidency, in addition to stabilizing the Republican traditional ticket warehouse, he put more speeches on the Great Lakes region of the traditional manufacturing base in the United States. The use of clause 201 is not only part of Trump’s commitment to the campaign, but may also kick off the US comprehensive trade protectionism policy for at least the next three years.
The Great Lakes region dominates the presidential campaign
Under the unique electoral college system of the US presidential campaign, both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party have their own solid votes and stable votes. In fact, the final result of the presidential election depends on the backwardness of several swing states. Trump's ability to defeat Hillary Clinton was based on the election of a number of swinging electoral votes, especially in the Great Lakes region of the United States. Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Trump, who was squandered by the mainstream media, swept the electoral votes of these traditional American manufacturing bases, and achieved the Republican candidate Roma, who had both political and political talents four years ago. What he couldn’t do, he won the election and entered the White House.
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