Analysis of Future Development of Semiconductor Lighting

As a revolutionary technology, the semiconductor lighting industry chain is long and widely used. It has the characteristics of multidisciplinary and multidisciplinary integration, basic research and applied research. In the future, what disruptive changes may occur in its product form and business model?

Status Quo: Obtaining Phased Results

China's semiconductor lighting key technologies have continuously made breakthroughs, and the industrial efficiency of silicon-based LED chips with independent intellectual property rights has reached 120lm/W; the import substitution ratio of domestic chips has increased year by year and reached 72% in 2012; now 48 films have been successfully developed. 56 Production-type MOVCD prototype; White semiconductor lighting package is close to the international advanced, more than 130 lumens / W. The energy-saving effect of LED has already appeared. Road lighting energy-saving is more than 30%, indoor lighting energy-saving is more than 50%, landscape lighting energy-saving is more than 70%.

Interpretation of the Status Quo of the LED Industry Outlook The future development trend of semiconductor lighting is to promote LED. The country deploys the system from the overall strategic height. In 2012, the State Council arranged 2.2 billion yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving lamps and LED lights; the Ministry of Commerce launched the demonstration project of “100 cities and a thousand stores”. Six Development and Reform Commissions and other six ministries jointly issued the "Semiconductor Lighting Energy-saving Industry Plan." The introduction of this series of policies has played a significant role in promoting the semiconductor lighting industry. Correspondingly, local policies have also been introduced, and more and more regions are striving to build a semiconductor lighting industry base. They have formulated plans for the semiconductor lighting industry, issued various supporting policies, and implemented semiconductor lighting application demonstration projects.

With the aid of policies, 37 pilot cities in the “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Cities” have implemented more than 2,700 demonstration projects, applied more than 7 million LED lamps, and saved more than 2.1 billion kWh annually. The regional pattern has basically taken shape. There are 15 industrialized bases in Xiamen, Shanghai, Dalian, Nanchang, Shenzhen, Yangzhou, and Shijiazhuang, which have initially formed industrial clusters with certain supporting capabilities; and 37 “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Cities” pilot cities approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology. It has played an exemplary role in advancing the integration and application of semiconductor lighting technology; the Pearl River Delta region has become a production base for China's applied products and has concentrated more than 50% of semiconductor lighting companies. The scale of the industry achieved sustained growth. In 2012, the annual production value reached 1920 billion yuan, an increase of 23% over 2011, and strategic emerging industries have basically taken shape. The standard inspection system has also been gradually improved. The standard revision plan is mainly aimed at test methods and performance requirements. The new standards development mainly involves equipment and materials, devices and modules, light sources and lamps, lighting applications and energy efficiency.

In terms of applications, China is a global manufacturing base for lighting products. In 2012, the LED general lighting output value was close to 42 billion yuan, an increase of 40%; the annual total output was 310 million, a substantial increase in the number of; LED lighting products manufacturing capacity and exports ranked first in the world. LED accounts for higher and higher proportions in general lighting. Commercial lighting and public lighting have become key applications. In the field of outdoor lighting, the penetration rate is relatively high, but the overall market penetration rate is still low, only 1% in 2011 and over 3% in 2012; the initial demonstration project led the transformation of the municipal system into a major market for lighting applications, focusing on roads, Tunnels, squares, subway lighting and other public lighting areas; and commercial lighting has become the fastest growing segmentation application market with good economics.

According to Zibo, deputy secretary-general of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, in 2012, the LED industry showed new features: the gradual shift in investment hotspots. In 2012, the overall investment amount dropped drastically, only about half of 2011, and investment hot spots shifted to the midstream and downstream. In 2011, the midstream and downstream links accounted for approximately 26%, and in 2012, it reached 68%. Corporate listing and integration accelerate. At present, there are 19 listed companies with LED as the main business, of which 13 are involved in the middle and lower reaches. There are more than 40 listed companies with LED concepts. More than 10 companies are waiting for IPOs, and industrial mergers and acquisitions represented by listed companies. Already appeared.

Go ahead in the challenge

Since the development of LEDs, there are still major challenges. Inadequate technological innovation capabilities, unregulated markets, non-aggregation of industrial resources, and imperfect development environment have all become bottlenecks in the development of the industry at this stage.

At present, the profit space of enterprises is gradually decreasing. The price of products dropped sharply, with a drop of around 25% and 40%. However, with the rapid growth in the sales volume, sales revenue did not increase at the same pace. The market environment is still not standardized, the quality of products is uneven, and the price war has become increasingly fierce. Even the price of the same product in the financial subsidy bidding has a great difference. The lack of product features, limited market channels, and fierce price competition. Standards and certification systems are incomplete, product interchangeability is poor, product quality and reliability are poor, prices, quality, and brand are disorderly. Consumers have no choice and greatly affect consumer confidence.

In addition, business models also need to be explored. At present, the engineering channel is the most important marketing mode for LED application companies. The professional channel market and other retail channels and supermarket shopping malls are slow to increase the right to speak, and diversified channels and models such as exclusive experience shops, e-commerce, and integrated service providers need to be further developed. explore.

In the future, the release of capacity under the new round of IPOs will be greater than the increase in demand. The lack of operating rate and inventory pressure will lead to increased competition in the industry and a continued decline in profitability. However, investment in downstream applications continues to heat up, price competition is heating up, and export expectations are uncertain. All of the above have formed a huge test for LED companies.

In this regard, Zibo said that LED companies should find out the industry's future development direction. In the future, the lighting application market will accelerate the penetration rate. Industries such as industrial, commercial and road lighting with large electricity consumption are still the main development direction. It is expected that the average penetration rate of the LED lighting market in 2013 will reach 9%. With the declining prices and cost-effectiveness of LED luminaires, it will take two years to enter home lighting.

Innovation will become a continuous theme. The main goal of technological innovation is still the drastic reduction in the cost of terminal application products; the application of new materials and new designs is the main direction of cost reduction; the development of technologies in the direction of integration; the emergence of new product forms, gradually moving toward intelligence, networking, and Integrated.

For the future, according to the plan, in 2015, China's semiconductor lighting industry will strive to break through the strategic layout of Europe, the United States and Japan, the functional lighting market penetration rate of 30%; 2020 goal is to spread to millions of households, becoming the world's LED industry power. To accomplish this goal, the main tasks in the near future are to enhance technological innovation capabilities, build enterprise-based innovation systems, promote cross-domain cooperation, establish public technology platforms, improve industrial ecosystems, formulate technical support standards, and promote detection technologies. , Methods and standards for landing, the establishment of quality monitoring methods and means; improve the degree of industrial concentration, promote mergers and acquisitions and reorganization, coordinate the central and local coordination, and explore a new way out of the development of China's science and technology industry.

In this process, national semiconductor lighting engineering R&D and industrial alliances will also play an important role. The alliance was established in 2004 by the backbone enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions engaged in the semiconductor lighting industry in China. Since its establishment, the alliance has made many achievements in supporting government decisions, leading technological innovation, and organizing the construction of industrial service platforms. The Alliance has nearly 300 member units from the Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan and registered foreign institutions in China, and has played an important role in improving the international competitiveness of China's lighting industry in recent years.