In 2011, the global photovoltaic market increased by 22.6%

On October 28th, the international research institute iSuppli Corporation released its latest research report on the photovoltaic industry in Shanghai. This year, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by more than 100% year-on-year to 15.7GW, which is higher than the 15GW that is widely expected in the industry. It will reach 22.6%.

Since May of this year, international polysilicon prices have continued to rise. Recently, near the US$90/kg mark, there are opinions in the industry that polysilicon prices will soon rise above US$100/kg. HenningWicht told the China Securities Journal that according to the current relationship between PV supply and demand, polysilicon prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term, but prices will decline in the medium term.

Next year's global growth rate or below 30%

"The global installed solar capacity is expected to reach 20.2 GW next year, with an increase of 22.6% in installed capacity," said Henning Wicht, chief analyst of photovoltaic materials and systems at iSuppli Corp., said prices will weaken at the end of the first quarter of 2011, and weak prices will lead to demand in the second quarter Great increase.

Due to the downward adjustment of FIT (Internet price subsidy policy) impact on the German and Italian markets, the current industry debate over whether the 2011 PV market is weak or continues to grow strongly. iSuppli predicts that Germany will take the lead again with 9.5 GW; Italy and the United States will both approach 2 GW; the installed capacity of the Czech Republic will drop significantly in 2011, falling from the GW level to 20%; the installed capacity in France will be reduced from the previous 1080 MW to 700 MW.

For the installed capacity of the Chinese market next year, iSuppli is expected to expand from 400MW this year to 800MW, and in 2014 it will be about 1.5GW.

HenningWicht told the China Securities Journal that China’s growth depends on whether the government’s subsidy policies, including the Golden Sun project, continue, and the continuous reduction in the cost of photovoltaics. If it is still the current price of 1 yuan/kWh, there will be pressure.

Germany's Demand Decreases by 50% in 2012

Germany is the world's most important photovoltaic market, and it is expected that this year will continue to account for half of global PV consumption in the next two years. Therefore, fluctuations in demand caused by changes in German subsidy policies have a direct impact on the global PV market supply and demand and global growth.

iSuppli predicts that in 2012 the global installed capacity will be slightly reduced to 19.0 GW. After the German market installed 9.5 GW in 2011, the annual installed capacity in the next few years will drop to 4-5 GW. The downgrade of FITs by major European countries and the depreciation of the Euros are likely to push up the prices of modules and other system components and will likely reduce the installed enthusiasm of major European consumer countries.

iSuppli believes that Germany will cut its subsidies for Internet access by 13% next year. If PV system manufacturers do not lower their prices, demand in the German market will shrink. It is estimated that PV module manufacturers will appropriately reduce by 10% to promote the continued prosperity of the market.

HenningWicht told the China Securities Journal that the module accounts for approximately 50-60% of the total cost. If PV operators want to ensure an 8%-10% return on investment, manufacturers must cut prices. In fact, current PV manufacturers' profits are still above 20%, and they can afford it. On the one hand, they can reduce costs by expanding the scale; on the other hand, they can also make full use of exchange rate fluctuations to improve profitability.