On April 3, Aoyang Shunchang raised 500 million yuan to increase the company's MOCVD equipment to 30 units. On April 4, Sanan Optoelectronics announced an investment of 10 billion yuan, with a total scale of 200 MOCVD, impacting global production capacity; April On the 18th, Huacan Optoelectronics announced that it will invest in the third phase of LED epitaxial chip, with a total investment of more than 1.1 billion yuan and 42 sets of MOCVD equipment. On July 24, Ganzhao Optoelectronics announced a total investment of 5 billion yuan, with a new scale of 100. Taiwan MOCVD; Dehao Runda is building a base in Yangzhou and Yangzhou, and the production capacity of new LED chips will be three times that of the current...
Recently, suspension of trading, mergers and acquisitions, and expansion of production have been deducted among domestic listed chip manufacturers. Are these hundreds of billions to billions of expansion projects behind the domestic manufacturers' accurate grasp of future business opportunities or a blind money-burning game? Will it repeat the mistakes of overcapacity two years ago? The industry is overwhelmed but expectless.
In fact, in 2010~2011, due to the explosive growth of the LCD backlight market and the overestimation of LED lighting in the market, coupled with the government's boost, there has also been a wave of expansion, but in the next In the past few years, there has been a serious overcapacity, and the development of LED chips has also fallen into a downturn. In recent years, with the rapid growth of downstream LED lighting market demand, the LED chip industry has begun to recover. Since the first half of this year, a number of chip companies have started a new round of expansion.
Stimulation of market demand?
According to the latest data from IHS, LED chip revenue will increase by 36.6% in 2014, and LED package revenue will reach 4.812 billion US dollars, up 14.8%. The agency expects the share of China's general lighting in all applications will increase from 49.1% in 2013 to 51.6% in 2014. Since the second quarter of 2013, the downstream LED lighting market demand exceeded the expected scale, directly driving the mid-stream device packaging and upstream chip, epitaxial wafer capacity release and utilization.
Benefiting from the surge in lighting demand, the LED industry has also ushered in a collective carnival?
Mr. Tang Guoqing, Secretary General of the Semiconductor Lighting Technology and Application Committee of the China Lighting Society, pointed out to reporters that the larger ones are bigger and the smaller ones are smaller. There will be no more than 10 LED chip manufacturers in the future. Expansion is a kind of strategic response for enterprises to rise to a new level and let themselves do bigger and more comprehensively. The current expansion is a well-doing enterprise.
It is understood that Sanan Optoelectronics achieved sales revenue of 2.177 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 30.03%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 666 million yuan, an increase of 43.87%. Sanan Optoelectronics said that in the first half of the year, the company's LED chip products are in short supply, and capacity expansion has become a top priority.
Relevant experts also pointed out that, unlike the capacity expansion in previous years, the current round of capacity expansion is relatively rational, and the leading forces are mostly leading enterprises in the industry, and the industry concentration is high. At the same time, LED lighting has reached a new level in terms of cost, performance and consumer perception, and the application prospect is good. Therefore, the new round of LED chip expansion will bring less risk of overcapacity.
"The comprehensive strength of technology and scale is the competitive barrier that chip companies must face in the future." Bian Difei, vice president of Huacan Optoelectronics, believes that chip companies without scale can't achieve the best price/performance ratio. Survive and develop in the fierce market competition.
Mr. Lu Jiawen, Sales Manager of Guangzhou Silicon Energy Lighting Co., Ltd. said that the supply of LED chips in the first half of the year was tight and the supply was not timely. However, it is basically timely and the supply volume is rising steadily. In the future, the demand for LED lighting application terminals will increase exponentially, and the demand for chips from packaging manufacturers will double (at least double).
In addition, the current cost of LEDs is declining, and the market demand is exponentially increasing. Even if LED chip manufacturers want to maintain sales last year, they must sell chips that are twice as many as last year, and the market demand has not only turned over. Doubled.
However, unlike upstream chip companies such as Sanan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics, which chose to continue to expand production, Dehao Runda suspended the purchase of MOCVD equipment. In its 2013 annual report, Dehao Runda stated that on February 11 this year, the company's second extraordinary shareholders meeting passed the proposal to terminate the use of raised funds to implement LED epitaxial chip projects. The company said that with the large increase in domestic MOCVD equipment investment, the production capacity of LED epitaxial chips has increased significantly, the production capacity has been excessively high, and prices have continued to fall. The company has purchased 92 MOCVD equipments with raised funds and own funds. The production capacity of these equipments has been Can meet the needs of the company.
Industrial Securities also said that including the new round of expansion of Sanan Optoelectronics, Ganzhao Optoelectronics and other manufacturers, the demand situation of the industry needs to be cautious. We estimate that there will be about 600 million new LED light sources in the world in 2015. According to our calculations, we can consume about 200 MOCVD production capacity.
Lin Yida, the marketing center of Jingyuan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., expressed his views on this round of expansion. He said that if the demand for the end of the seaport does not keep up, there may be a new round of overcapacity, which is foreseeable. The price war will be unavoidable, and it will also affect the flow of another wave of talent. However, demand has indeed come up. At present, the capacity utilization rate of Epistar is close to 100%, and there will be plans to expand production.
The lure of financial subsidies?
The LED industry, especially in the upstream sector, has been over-subsidized and has been criticized by people outside the industry. Some people even pointed out that upstream companies have lost their ability to hematopoiesis. Once the government removes blood vessels, the survival of chip companies is in jeopardy. Financial subsidies have also been cited as the main incentive for the previous round of overcapacity. The news that the upstream chip companies have received subsidies has been continuous. Is this round of expansion, and is it a financial subsidy?
It is understood that Xiamen City has given high subsidies and corresponding street lamp orders to Sanan Optoelectronics and Ganzhao Optoelectronics' chip projects in Xiamen.
The Xiamen Torch Development Zone agreed to give the Sanan Optoelectronics Project Company a single unit of equipment with a 2-inch, 54-piece subsidy of 5 million yuan. It will be paid in installments with the company's project company's payment schedule. The upper limit of subsidies is 200; on the other hand, support three An Optoelectronics Project Company and the cooperative energy service company will undertake LED renovation projects for public lighting such as Xiamen street lamps in a competitive negotiation mode in accordance with the contractual energy management model, and plan to renovate the project for about 10 billion yuan in 10 years.
The Xiamen Torch Management Committee agreed to purchase MOCVD equipment for the production of LED blue and green epitaxial wafers for the first phase of Ganzhao Optoelectronics. The equipment subsidy will be granted at 48% of the purchase amount of each equipment. The subsidy for a single equipment shall not exceed 5 million. Yuan, the upper limit of subsidies is 50 units, and the subsidy payments are paid in installments with the progress of the project payment. The second phase of the project is planned to invest 3 billion yuan, and the second phase of the project will be built for 2 years. If the company fails to complete the first phase of project investment as agreed and all 50 equipments are put in place and put into production, the Xiamen Torch Management Committee will no longer provide follow-up support to the company's second phase project.
In addition to the subsidies for other projects, Huacan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huacan Optoelectronics (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., received the management committee of Zhangjiagang Economic and Technological Development Zone on July 1st. The document of the "Reply of Industrial Development Subsidy of the Co., Ltd." agreed to allocate 27.5 million yuan of industrial development subsidy funds for Huacan Optoelectronics (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. in the second quarter of 2014. On April 4 this year, Huacan Optoelectronics (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. has received the approval of the Zhangjiagang Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee to allocate a subsidy of 29.4 million yuan.
Similarly, Aoyang Shunchang received government subsidies to varying degrees.
Mr. Zhou Xuejun, Director of Asia Pacific Marketing of Philips Lumileds, told reporters that as the price of LED products is getting closer to consumers' expectations, the market demand for LEDs is indeed exploding. If these expansions are natural business practices, expansion based on market demand, and not because of government subsidies, there will be no overcapacity crisis. Overall, this round of expansion is relatively rational.
Mr. Tang Guoqing also said that the technology upgrade is perfect and the market demand is exploding. This is the obvious feature of this round of expansion. The climax of government subsidies has passed, and in this round of expansion, the factors in the market are more considered.
Lehman Optoelectronics said from another angle that the current expansion plans of several major chip manufacturers are different. Huacan Optoelectronics and Ganzhao Optoelectronics are expanding the production line for the full-color display of the display screen. The display market brings new competition; Aoyang Shunchang is positioned in the low-end lighting market, and certain capacity expansion is an inevitable choice to reduce the cost; Sanan’s expansion plan may have the intention of deterring the second-tier manufacturers and actually expand The progress is not necessarily as fast as planned. In general, I think that the actual expansion of major manufacturers will be relatively cautious, and the production capacity will be excessive, but it will not happen in the first two years.
[new point of view]
Although this round of expansion is still mixed with financial subsidies, it is clearly not the main cause. In the tide of expansion caused by LED lighting, it still belongs to the carnival of a few companies. It can be seen that the competition pattern of chip companies has gradually become clear, and scale competition has become the key point for domestic chip manufacturers to reduce costs and compete for the market.
The extremes of things must be reversed. Any excess of things will inevitably lead to another crisis. Therefore, a new round of expansion still requires rational thinking in order to avoid a new round of overcapacity.
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