Electronic enthusiasts eight o'clock in the morning : The US White House published a strongly worded report on January 6th against the current situation of the US semiconductor industry and China's active threat to become the global chip field.
The report was written by President Obama's Council of Advisors on Science & Technology (PCAST), pointing out that the US semiconductor industry needs innovation and accelerated action in response to China's attempts to reverse market conditions. A threat to a favorable position.
The report broadly recommends strategies based on three major axes: one is to counter China's industrial policy that “blocks innovationâ€, the other is to improve the business environment for US chip makers, and the third is to “help the catalytic revolution in the next decadeâ€. Sexual semiconductor innovation."
As we all know, China's semiconductor industry is relying on industrial funds as the leading factor, coupled with the overwhelming momentum, from the merger stage to the construction of chip production lines, including memory. Because of China's large-scale investment and determination, it is rare in the history of global semiconductors, so some people find it incomprehensible. In fact, standing in the Chinese position, China wants to develop its own semiconductor industry. If it is based on the "so-called market rules" set up by others, it is unacceptable. Despite the difficulties ahead, it is only when you rely on your own strength and take your own path to have a hope of success.
Will the Sino-US semiconductor confrontation be upgraded?
Observing the development of China's semiconductor industry, Western powers have never stopped China's suppression, but with the interests of both sides, it will be tempered, sometimes loose, and sometimes more competitive. In fact, this is the normal situation. The fundamental reason is that the times have been changed. The two sides have already "you have me, I have you", and only cooperation and win-win is the overall situation. In addition, China has so many people, so much capacity, and the recent increase in national strength, I believe that anyone must face it.
It is not yet time to analyze the comprehensive reconciliation between China and the United States. However, the possibility of a comprehensive confrontation between the two sides will not be too great, but the friction between the two sides will certainly increase. Because Intel’s sales in China amounted to 12.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 25% of its total sales, Qualcomm was 8.47 billion US dollars, accounting for 53% (compared with a forecast of 65% in 2017), and Broadcom was 5.04 billion US dollars. 60%, NXP is 4.95 billion US dollars, accounting for 50%, and Micron's 5.76 billion US dollars, accounting for 41%.
Like the Chinese semiconductor industry, their industrial interests (national interests) and corporate interests are sometimes inconsistent.
In addition, the world's largest chip manufacturers have their advanced process crystal garden production lines in China, and if the two sides confront each other, the consequences are unimaginable.
Rational response of China's semiconductor industry
In fact, China's semiconductor industry is often "thundering, rain is small", take the purple light as an example, it through the means of mergers, in addition to Spreadtrum, Rideco, etc., other decent things did not get anything. However, Ziguang did not succumb, Zhao Weiguo still vowed to invest 70 billion US dollars in Wuhan, Chengdu and Nanjing to build factories, as if not only storage, but also for foundry, ambitious, admirable.
Compared with advanced semiconductor regions such as the United States, China's semiconductor industry is still very weak, at least not yet the basic conditions for comprehensive confrontation. But the Chinese semiconductor industry does not have to be afraid, because it is afraid that it will not change the status quo.
From the strategic point of view, it is the rational performance to consider the most difficult situation first. Because opponents may have a lot of opportunities to “playâ€, such as treating “Zhongxingâ€, issuing a document restricting their international trade (not yet implemented), or launching a wider embargo on China, and further blocking Foreign mergers and acquisitions of Chinese semiconductors are likely to occur.
If this time really comes, there is nothing terrible, two countermeasures: 1) Under any circumstances, not afraid, fear will not change the status quo, but must not shrink; 2) According to historical experience, it may be reversed "Bad things can become good things," forcing us to meet the needs of the Chinese semiconductor market at a faster pace and self-reliance. However, from the analysis of the interests of both parties, the confrontation is both losers and hurts. It is not good for anyone. Only when the two sides cooperate and win in the competition is the right path. Therefore, it is believed that the confrontation between the Chinese and American semiconductor industries is unlikely to last for a long time.
At present, China's semiconductor industry has a certain foundation. Although there are still many gaps with advanced regions, it is an indisputable fact that the relative gap is narrowing. In the future, the weighting factor of China's semiconductor industry in the world will continue to increase, which is also a consensus, especially in terms of mature processes, China. There is enough competitive strength.
Relevant information shows that funds invested in integrated circuit manufacturing will exceed 350 billion yuan in the next few years. If the current capacity of existing and under construction in mainland China is converted into 12-inch capacity, the total volume may reach 1,560 thousand pieces per month, of which the capacity under construction is close to 90% of the existing capacity, and mainly the 12-inch production line.
More important is to quickly change yourself.
Will the Sino-US semiconductor industry confrontation escalate in the future? This problem does not necessarily look too heavy. Anything in the future may happen. It is meaningless to think too much. In fact, everyone understands that the key lies in ourselves. Only the Chinese semiconductor industry itself is rapidly hardening, especially those backbone enterprises, to step up research and development, and strive to close the gap, so that there is a force to survive. Recently, I heard the good news that Changjiang Storage will be able to carry out 32-layer 3D NAND mass production in 2017, which is greatly encouraging. On the other hand, it is to further expand the opening up and strive to improve the development environment of the industry. Cooperation and win-win is the general trend. The development path of China's semiconductor industry must be bumpy, and only continue to greet the Chaoyang.
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